Aljazeera Photo: Argentina’s President Javier Milei speaks in Asuncion, Paraguay, on Sept 16

Source: Aljazeera

DST News: President Javier Milei’s bid to strengthen his political foothold in Argentina faces mounting challenges, as corruption scandals, a sluggish economy, and declining approval ratings cloud the upcoming midterm elections.

On October 26, Argentinians will vote to renew half of the Chamber of Deputies and one-third of the Senate. Both chambers are currently dominated by centrist and left-wing opposition parties, but the midterms offer a crucial chance for Milei’s far-right La Libertad Avanza movement to expand its influence in Congress.

According to political analyst Andres Malamud from the University of Lisbon, Milei’s camp is aiming to secure at least a third of congressional seats — enough to prevent the opposition from achieving a supermajority that could override his vetoes. This would allow Milei to govern with greater independence and shield him from potential impeachment threats.

Economic Promises and Political Risks
The midterms will effectively serve as a referendum on Milei’s first two years in power. Though inflation has eased under his government, austerity measures — including cuts to healthcare, education, and infrastructure — have strained the public.

Malamud noted that while voters initially supported Milei’s radical reforms in hopes of economic renewal, patience is wearing thin. “People believed he could change things,” he said. “Now the challenge is whether they still believe in that promise when things haven’t improved.”

Despite stabilising inflation, the Argentine peso’s appreciation has stifled salary growth and weakened purchasing power. The result has been widespread frustration, particularly among working-class voters.

A Polarising Presidency
Milei, an economist and self-proclaimed “anarcho-capitalist,” rose to power as an anti-establishment outsider, vowing to dismantle what he called a corrupt “political caste.” Since taking office in November 2023, he has made dramatic spending cuts to achieve a fiscal surplus, earning both praise and criticism at home and abroad.

However, Milei has struggled to form stable coalitions, complicating his efforts to pass key legislation. His popularity has also suffered from multiple scandals involving his allies and inner circle.

Scandals Shake the Administration
Earlier this month, prominent congressional candidate José Luis Espert suspended his campaign after being charged with money laundering tied to a businessman accused of drug trafficking. Milei dismissed the allegations as a “malicious smear,” but the scandal has damaged his party’s image.

Another controversy erupted when leaked audio implicated Milei’s sister and close adviser, Karina Milei, in alleged kickback schemes with pharmaceutical firms. Milei denied the claims, calling them part of an “orchestrated disinformation campaign.”

These controversies have emboldened Congress, which has twice overridden Milei’s vetoes — first to preserve disability funding, then to protect education and healthcare budgets.

Trump’s Support and Its Fallout
As the election nears, Milei has found an outspoken supporter in US President Donald Trump. The two met at the White House in mid-October, shortly after Washington announced a $20bn currency swap with Argentina to bolster its peso.

Trump openly framed the move as an attempt to strengthen Milei ahead of the midterms but warned the deal was conditional on his political success — remarks that sent the peso plunging again.

“Trump’s backing is creating confusion and uncertainty,” said political scientist Carolina Barry. “It’s not necessarily helping Milei at home.”

Recent polls show the centre-left Fuerza Patria party leading Milei’s La Libertad Avanza by about 15 points. Analysts suggest that while Milei may gain a few congressional seats, he is unlikely to secure a governing majority without forming alliances.

The Decisive Factor: The Economy
For many observers, the economy will ultimately determine Milei’s fate. Researcher Mariana Heredia of CONICET noted that while last year brought modest recovery, austerity measures have now taken a heavier toll.

“The economy is stagnant,” she said. “Only mining and oil are growing — sectors that don’t benefit most urban voters.”

Malamud agreed: “Milei’s support base is fragile, built on hope for a better future. In the end, everything comes down to the economy — and money.”